Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 0.182012 0.204391 0.228566 0.256640 0.288375 0.323164 0.364235
2025-11-23 0.142050 0.170552 0.203557 0.244679 0.294653 0.353559 0.428468
2025-11-30 0.119266 0.152037 0.192433 0.246072 0.315709 0.403437 0.522946
2025-12-07 0.096766 0.130196 0.173798 0.235146 0.319754 0.433082 0.597641
2025-12-14 0.081155 0.114758 0.160931 0.229490 0.329542 0.471505 0.690492
2025-12-21 0.068954 0.102070 0.149817 0.224346 0.338999 0.510717 0.791163
2025-12-28 0.061597 0.095193 0.145881 0.228846 0.363057 0.574759 0.940083
2026-01-04 0.053944 0.086715 0.138263 0.226405 0.375789 0.623066 1.072356
2026-01-11 0.048289 0.080560 0.133355 0.227451 0.394159 0.683146 1.234926
2026-01-18 0.044011 0.076047 0.130447 0.231310 0.417753 0.755600 1.432337
2026-01-25 0.038319 0.068326 0.121014 0.222241 0.416678 0.783486 1.551091
2026-02-01 0.033228 0.061001 0.111305 0.211213 0.410139 0.799880 1.649866
2026-02-08 0.029546 0.055898 0.105189 0.206518 0.415969 0.842895 1.815275
2026-02-15 0.026269 0.051144 0.099120 0.201060 0.419495 0.882064 1.980907
2026-02-22 0.024449 0.049002 0.097853 0.205196 0.443818 0.969294 2.272837
2026-03-01 0.021749 0.044736 0.091762 0.198268 0.443010 1.001400 2.442280
2026-03-08 0.019725 0.041616 0.087644 0.195033 0.450018 1.052564 2.669574
2026-03-15 0.017939 0.038781 0.083763 0.191758 0.456407 1.103396 2.907123
2026-03-22 0.016963 0.037590 0.083316 0.196356 0.482497 1.206941 3.307839
2026-03-29 0.015644 0.035463 0.080489 0.194841 0.493102 1.273119 3.619729
2026-04-05 0.014646 0.033953 0.078898 0.196143 0.511217 1.362361 4.019037
2026-04-12 0.013879 0.032898 0.078249 0.199745 0.536095 1.474622 4.514307
2026-04-19 0.012548 0.030318 0.073582 0.192183 0.529101 1.496093 4.730715